Last Update: 11:26 AM ET Dec. 30, 2004 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- McDonald's, Starbucks and Yum Brands are expected to post strong gains in December same-store sales, but Wendy's and Brinker International's properties will likely decline, UBS Investment Research said Thursday. "Overall, it feels like the winners will keep winning in December," said analyst David Palmer in a note to clients. "Players such as McDonald's, Starbucks, and Burger King (private) should continue to enjoy above-average same-store sales growth of mid- to high-single digits. However, Wendy's and Brinker same-store sales likely declined this month." McDonald's (MCD: news, chart, profile), Starbucks (SBUX: news, chart, profile) and Yum Brands (YUM: news, chart, profile) have "greatly outperformed the market over the last two years," Palmer added. The analyst forecast December same-store sales, or sales in stores open at least a year, to increase by 1.8 percent at McDonald's, by 7 percent at Starbucks and by 2 percent at Yum Brands, which operates the Kentucky Fried Chicken, Pizza Hut, Long John Silver's and Taco Bell chains. Analysts' consensus view for the three companies foresees increases of 2.5 percent, 9 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. Palmer projects McDonald's U.S. restaurants posting a 4 percent same-store sales gain, which is in line with the consensus estimate, partly offset by a 2 percent decline in the company's outlets in Europe, against a 1 percent increase in the consensus view. As for Wendy's (WEN: news, chart, profile), Palmer projects a same-store sales decline of 5 percent, which is in line with the average estimate. Brinker (EAT: news, chart, profile) is forecast to fall 1.2 percent versus the consensus outlook for a 0.5 percent decline. The company operates, among other chains, Chili's, Romano's Macaroni Grill, On the Border and the Corner Bakery. In addition, Palmer said that Darden Restaurants (DRI: news, chart, profile) should post a 6 percent December gain, outpacing the 4.5 percent consensus, and Applebee's International (APPB: news,chart, profile) should grow 3.5 percent against the 1.5 percent average outlook.

Canada beef import ban to end. In related news, nearly two years after the United States shut down cattle imports from Canada after a case of mad-cow disease was discovered there, the Department of Agriculture will reopen the door to imports that could spell lower beef prices and lift restaurant stocks. Canada's new designation as a "minimal risk" region, disclosed late Wednesday, means imports of live cows aged less than 30 months can resume effective March 7. Cattle imports from Canada were halted in May 2003. A year ago, a cow in Washington State, traced to a herd in Canada, tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or mad-cow disease. "USDA is confident that the animal and public health measures that Canada has in place to prevent BSE, combined with existing U.S. domestic safeguards and additional safeguards provided in the final rule provide the utmost protections to U.S. consumers and livestock," the department said. About 2 million head of cattle will flow into the U.S. in the first year of the new designation for Canada, the department estimated. The news is welcome for restaurants and food companies, which could pay less for beef as more cattle becomes available, analysts said. Canadian cattle made up about 7 percent of the U.S. herd before the ban. See full story. "The companies we expect to benefit the most over the next 12 to 24 months are Outback Steakhouse (OSI: news, chart, profile), Rare Hospitality (RARE: news, chart, profile) and Wendy's International," Prudential Equity said in a research note to clients. Early Thursday, Outback reported its December same-store sales fell 0.8 percent, citing Christmas falling on a Saturday this year as a factor affecting the results. Upbeat restaurant survey Also Thursday, the National Restaurant Association said restaurant operators are increasingly optimistic about the direction of the restaurant industry and the overall economy. According to the industry association's Restaurant Performance Index, the expectations index increased 0.3 percent in November, marking the third time that this gauge has increased in the last four months. The expectations index, which measures restaurant operators' six-month outlook for four industry indicators, was fueled by positive expectations for sales, capital expenditures and the economy, among other factors, the association said. However, the NRA's current situation index declined 1.4 percent in November, as customer traffic levels tapered off. Taken together, the overall performance index dipped 0.6 percent in November.