Operations

Restaurant-transaction declines holding steady

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November 9, 2020

Customer transaction declines at major U.S. restaurant chains held steady at -9% every week in October compared to the same weeks one year ago, according to The NPD Group.

Quick service restaurant chains, which have been able to leverage their off-premises operations during the pandemic, also stabilized transaction declines at -9% throughout the month. Full-service restaurant chains, however, saw transaction declines fluctuate from -16% in the first week of October to -14% in the last full week of the month, according to NPD's CREST Performance Alerts, which provide a weekly view of chain-specific transactions and share trends for 75 quick-service, fast-casual, midscale and casual dining chains representing 53% of the commercial restaurant traffic in U.S.

Strong growth in digital and off-premises restaurant orders helped stabilize transaction declines in October. With dine-in operations limited and consumers in search of contactless foodservice, digital restaurant orders from mobile apps, text messages and the internet grew by 138% in the July, August, and September quarter compared to the same quarter last year.

Off-premises orders from carryout, delivery, and drive-thru increased by 22% in the quarter compared to a year ago while on-premises/dine-in declined by -62%. Delivery had the strongest visit growth in the quarter, up 106%, but held the smallest traffic share, 9%, of off-premise services. Carryout held the largest traffic share at 46% with visits up 9%, and drive-thru visits grew by 27% in the third quarter and represented 44% of visits. Restaurant visits, both physical and virtual, declined by -10% in the quarter compared to the same quarter year ago, based on NPD's CREST foodservice research, which tracks daily how U.S. consumers use restaurants and other foodservice outlets.

"While some of the steep transaction and traffic declines experienced at the height of the mandated shelter-at-home and dine-in closures have been recovered, many uncertainties lie ahead for the industry," David Portalatin, NPD food industry adviser and author of Eating Patterns in America, said in a company press release. "The continuing pandemic, governmental restrictions, and relief funding are just a few of the uncertainties. But, what we do know for certain is that consumers continue to rely on restaurants and other foodservice outlets to prepare their meals, and there is pent-up demand while we wait for a return to normalcy."