Operations

Dine-in traffic remains headwind for U.S. restaurant industry recovery

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November 5, 2021

The U.S. restaurant industry continues to recover from last year's steep declines, although not yet back to pre-pandemic levels.

Total online and physical visits to restaurants were up 5% in the year ending Sept. compared to the same period last year, and down 6% from September 2019. While restaurant visits continue to improve overall, dine-in or on-premises traffic continues to struggle compared to pre-pandemic levels, according to The NPD Group.

Dine-in visits to restaurants were down 48% in the 12 months ending Sept. 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic level in the year ending Sept. 2019, according to a press release on the research. Off-premises orders, like carry-out, drive-thru, and delivery, were up 20% versus two years ago Sept. Year-over-year, dine-in visits declined by 10% in the 12 months ending Sept. compared to a year ago, and off-premises grew by 10% in the period, according to NPD's daily tracking of the U.S. foodservice industry.

Full-service restaurants, which rely heavily on dine-in customers, have struggled the most of all restaurant segments during the pandemic. Visits to FSRs in the year ending Sept. 2021 increased by 7% over a 23% decline a year ago. FSR traffic this Sept. was 17% below the pre-pandemic level based on the 12 months ending Sept. 2019. Before the pandemic, FSR on-premises visits represented 80% of the segment's total traffic, with the remaining share being off-premises. For year ending Sept. 2021, dine-in visits represented 56% of FSR traffic, and off-premises represented 44% of orders or visits.

Quick service restaurants are not as reliant on dine-in visits as FSRs, and most, particularly chains, already had well-developed off-premises operations when the pandemic began. However, QSRs have lost dine-in visits too. Before the pandemic, dine-in visits represented 28% of total QSR visits, and in the year ending Sept. 2021, dine-in represented 14% of traffic share. On-premises visits to QSRs are 52% below pre-pandemic levels and off-premises is 16% above pre-pandemic levels. Visits to QSRs increased by 4% overall in the year ending Sept. 2021 compared to a year ago, declining 4% versus the same period ending September 2019.

"The real headwind for the U.S. foodservice industry remains on-premises occasions," David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America, said in the release. "The industry's labor challenges and consumer reluctance to dine-in may keep restaurants, particularly FSR, at limited capacity and streamlined menus for the near future."