Article
How safe will QSRs play it this year?
Operators likely to avoid menu experiments; rollouts may be put on hold.
February 16, 2009
Culinary and foodservice trend mappers typically lay out predictions for the restaurant landscape at the beginning of the year. And this year has had its share of forecasts.
But what those consulting groups are having a hard time pinpointing is how the quick-service landscape will be affected by the economy in the coming year.
"Is it easier to predict things when the economy's on solid ground? I would say, yeah, it is," said Marc Halperin, chief operating officer and culinary director for the Center for Culinary Development. "The ground is shifting beneath everybody, even those of us who try to prognosticate and who make a living by doing it."
Going ethnic
Suzy Badaracco, president of Culinary Tides Inc., said that as a result of the economy, many QSRs will be conservative and focus on what they do well. A few, especially those with menu developments already in the pipeline, may follow fine- and casual-dining trends and add ethnic flavors, especially those from South America.
"But if they go into those directions, and it's not normal for their menus, they're going to do it really safely and tie it directly into a variation of (flavors) consumers are already familiar with," she said.
For example, Subway added an ethnic influence to its offerings by introducing flatbreads as an option for its sandwich bread.
The Center for Culinary Development also has been tracking flavor influences from Latin America and South America, a trend in all dining segments, Halperin said. Like Badaracco, he sees QSRs sticking with recognizable seasonings.
"Chili and lime is a very, very easy translation and something that the American palate can understand," Halparin said.
Consumers take comfort in the familiar
As the economic recession continues, consumers are responding with an increased desire for stability and so are seeking comfort food.
"Consumers right now are not into an adventurous mode," Badaracco said. "When we go into economic crisis or we go into wartime, Americans stick close to home, they stick with what they know."
Soul food, with influences from the Deep South, including African, Cuban, and French flavors, is an example of the form comfort food may take in QSRs, she said.
Mintel Menu Insights menu tracking forecast sees comfort food as the No. 1 menu trend for 2009, with restaurants "increasing their use of slow-cooking, slow-baked (and) slow grilled."
For example, Popeye's repositioned itself last fall as Louisiana Kitchen, emphasizing its slow-cooked preparation. Badaracco said the rapid growth of fast food barbecue chains across the United States is another sign of comfort food's popularity.
Badaracco said breakfast is the daypart likely to see the most new product issues, with QSRs playing on the comfort food angle as well as using it as a way to introduce South American influences. McDonald's breakfast burritos, — which also tie into the handheld food trend — are one example.
Bold barbecue
Halperin said the growth of barbecue or smoky flavors is not so much comfort food as Generation Y's — those ages 15 to 31 — seeking "big, bold flavors," as the company found in recent research on the demographic.
"QSRs will continue to accommodate (that preference) and try to lure them in with bigger layers of flavor and bolder flavors," he said, noting Burger King's recent rollout of the Angry Whopper, with its hot onions, jalapenos and pepper jack cheese, is an example.
QSRs, however, are not likely to respond to the trend by simply slapping barbecue sauce on a burger. Instead, they will likely use regional or other descriptors to differentiate the flavor, Halperin said.
"If the guy next door just has smoke (flavor), and you've added apple wood or mesquite, that could be more interesting and could therefore have an affect on price point," he said.
Value over convenience
Snack is another category likely to see a number of rollouts this year, building on previous years' popularity, Halperin said. Already this year, Burger King has launched mini-whoppers and mini-breakfast sandwiches.
"Snack is probably going to lead," he said.
Snack fits into the consumers' desire for smaller portions and for value, Culinary Tides' Badaracco said. And value is extremely important to consumers in today's environment.
"Right now, consumers are really gravitating toward bargains versus convenience, so they'll forego convenience for a bargain instead," she said. "But snacks can play both sides of that — snacks can be convenient, and they are a bargain, so they are in a great spot right now."
What won't be on the menu
One category Halperin doesn't see getting much play this year is healthy menu items.
"I don't think companies are going to be spending a huge amount of time and effort trying to push through an initiative for a lot of healthy menu items," he said. "Consumers are probably more interested in just getting by than they are in health right now, but this position is not going to last forever."
Companies may also hold back on some of their rollouts, especially any that require a large amount of capital, he said.
"(QSRs are) not going to be investing in big pieces of equipment, and they're not going to be remodeling," Halperin said.
McDonald's and KFC are still going forward with their respective McCafe and grilled chicken rollouts, since these were already in the works before the recession hit.
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But the brand that foregoes all new initiatives or innovations is not likely to last the downturn.
"I'm really curious just to see . . . how are these chains going to quick-change gears and be nimble enough to deal with their customers," Nielsen said. "This is such a new ballgame on the entire consumer perspective. Things are happening we never would have thought would have happened. I think we're in for some surprises, and we'll just have to see what happens."
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