Blog

Will Burger King, Popeyes meatless + chicken sensations stand test of time?

Photo: iStock

January 28, 2020 by Jason Altman — Senior Director of Equity Insights, 1010data

Restaurant Brands International, the owner of the Burger King and Popeyes brands, was busy last year rolling out two QSR sensations in August, including Burger King's meatless Impossible Whopper and Popeyes' online viral superstar, the spicy chicken sandwich. They made millions in free media alone, but the question really is did those much-publicized launches really end up bringing in new customers or increased sales?
 
While not a scientific innovation like that of the lab-born Impossible Whopper's plant-based meat, Popeyes' spicy chicken sandwich has caused quite a stir, including selling out of the sandwich in 16 days after its introduction and the associated media frenzy around the long lines, as well as tales from exhausted Popeyes employees and other fallout from the sandwich's popularity. So it's really no surprise that, due to overwhelming popular demand, Popeyes made the sandwich a permanent part of its menu in November and offered to deliver it free just last week as part of its alliance with DoorDash.

But what do the numbers say about both Popeyes hit, as well as Burger King's Impossible launch? Initially, data seems to align with the view that these were both very successful endeavors, though the Popeyes sandwich really pulled in the sales. For instance, in the month following the Burger King launch on Aug. 8, new unique customers increased by approximately 5%. By contrast, Popeyes increased unique customers by 20% in the initial release, and by over 70% since the official re-launch on Nov. 3. 

If you delve further into the numbers around the brand's payment and geolocation, you see that sales and customers almost doubled on initial release of the sandwich. But when the brand ran out of the sandwich, numbers returned to previous levels. 

(Graph shows initial mid-August launch and Popeyes business spike, plus higher adoption at the permanent menu addition of the sandwich later.)

Then, the permanent launch months later showed even higher sales and customer growth, though it remains possible that this is part of a viral sensation causing short-term hype without long-term customer acquisition impact. The return to normal, pre-August sales levels after the brand ran out of the sandwich lends itself to that hypothesis. And, if it's hype, the sandwich's permanent availability now may mean sales will also return to previous normal levels after a few more weeks or months.

(Graph show first day of sandwich placement on permanent menu along with mid-August.)

The plant-based peak ... then fall

While approximately 17 major chains have launched meatless menu options, along the lines of the Impossible or Beyond Burger, data from Burger King suggests limited success. A quick data analysis here shows that the launch helped sales nominally, but not significantly. So, the same questions applies here: Does the product drive new, lasting customers or sales? And similarly one might ask if these new types of menu items actually drive incremental sales to these restaurants or are they instead cannibalizing business from other menu items?

(Graph shows slightly higher demand at Burger King with the meatless launch, but trends are now faltering.)

The essential story here follows Popeyes example, showing that due to the overall lack of innovation, the brand went back to "Square One" when they were no longer in a position to serve the new product. The question then is that if the spicy chicken sandwich craze fades with time, and the meatless Whopper also fails to deliver the expected result, how then does fast food approach the innovation it so desperately needs? Only experimentation and subsequent data analysis, can tell.

Many of these new menu options are launched strictly in test markets in limited numbers of cities or stores so the brand can track data monitoring the products methodical expansion to see which test markets are successful. Only then, can the brand solidly determine whether it should continue expansion of the item and if so, where. Without this kind of approach, any QSR innovation that follows the chicken sandwich's flight risks failing to stay aloft.

All inset graphs courtesy 1010data.